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Category: Market Update (34)

Nov
29

RE/MAX 2020 CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

RE/MAX 2020 CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Canadian housing market looks bright in 2020 as markets stabilize, consumer confidence returns

ONTARIO

Toronto is set to experience a strong housing market in 2020. Lower unemployment rates, economic growth, and improved overall affordability in the Greater Toronto Area are expected to drive the market forward. The estimated average sale price increase for 2020 is six per cent. The city saw 76,413 transactions in 2019, up 12 per cent from last year (68,064). While Toronto is experiencing its “busiest” construction season ever, housing supply still falls short of the demands of the city’s rapidly growing population. Cities such as Ottawa and Windsor are seller’s markets, showing substantial increases in average residential sale price at 11.7 and 11 per cent, respectively. This strong growth is expected to continue into 2020, with Ottawa’s new LRT system impacting surrounding development and Windsor’s continued affordability attracting young professionals to the area. Buyers are also not burdened by the mortgage stress test, as they were in 2018. The Niagara region is also showing strong growth, with average residential sale price increasing almost 13 per cent, from $378,517 in 2018 to $427,487.50 in 2019. Value conscious consumers from the Greater Toronto Area area buying in droves, with many choosing to live in the region while commuting to Toronto. Seller’s markets dominate the province.

Dean Manton is the real estate expert for Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge and surrounding areas. Put Dean’s 20+ years of real estate experience to work for you!

Apr
12

The Spring Market is Underway!

Market updateAfter Ontario’s housing market saw dampened activity in the second half of 2018. Existing home sales are experiencing a partial recovery so far in 2019. Buyers are re-entering the market and a robust spring market for Guelph and area is underway. Spring market conditions usually include homes attracting multiple offers and selling for full price or more. I’m encountering multiple offer scenarios on most of the properties that I’m putting offers on. While this isn’t nearly at the level that we experienced in 2016, when we saw homes selling for $100K over asking price, sales for $20K to $40K over asking are not uncommon.

In this type of market buyers need to be prepared to make the best offer they can in order to win the day. While offering the most money is a good way to ensure a successful bid, offers with no conditions are also popular with sellers. It’s also becoming common for buyers to write a letter about their family, sometimes with pictures, to the sellers in order to make their offer seem more personal. Offers that combine an attracting price, no conditions and a personal touch have a good chance of success.

Guelph had 193 sales in March which was up just slightly from March of last year 185. The average sale price for a home in Guelph last month was $516,075. In March 2018 the average sale price was $510,878. Properties were selling quickly as the average days on market for MLS sales was 15 days. That’s not much different from last year when it was 13 days. The average price per square foot for Guelph resale homes was $367 per square foot. Sellers 99.2% of their asking price on average in March and 41% of homes sold for full price or more.

At the beginning of April there was 1.5 months worth of inventory for sale based on current sales levels. This isn’t a lot of homes for a busy spring market. Hopefully the warmer weather will bring forth more homes to market.

Buyers: the key to success in a spring market is preparation. Have your financing approved. If you want to do a home inspection, use the time that you’re waiting for offers to be presented. Good offers with no conditions will get the seller’s attention.

Sellers: your key to success is preparing your home for sale. Making sure your home is attractive to buyers will get you half way there. The right pricing and marketing will get you the rest of the way.

 

Dean Manton is Guelph and area’s real estate expert. Put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you! #my21styear

Nov
27

Real Estate Market Continues to Recover

Market updateAccording to CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation), the real estate continues to recover. In the recently released Fall Housing Market Outlook, CMHC predicted that a recovery for the Ontario real estate market, that is already underway, will continue in 2019. After hitting record levels of activity in 2016, Ontario existing homes sales hit a trough in the second quarter of 2018 and are now slowly recovering. “We expect home sales to continue trending higher before easing by 2020, the report stated. “Some prospective buyers sitting on the sidelines early this year will be re-entering the market as they slowly adjust to tighter mortgage market conditions”.

The lagged effects of a strong job market and high levels of in-migration will continue supporting existing home demand before eroding affordability and a slower economy dampen housing demand by 2020”. Sounds like 2019 will be a good year to sell. Keep in mind that this prediction is for Ontario. Guelph’s real estate market tends to be stronger than the Ontario average because of strong employment, demand from GTA buyers and as we all know, Guelph is an awesome place to live!

The city of Guelph had 163 sales in October which was an increase of 7.5% from October of last year. The average sale price for Guelph homes was $493,981. On average, sellers received 99.4% of their asking price and 38% of MLS sales sold for full price or more. The median days on market was only 18 days. October was a busy month for Guelph real estate and there were a lot of happy sellers. Guelph’s numbers echo the CMHC report of a recovering real estate market.

Buyers: A recent article in Inman News called December THE month to get a good deal on a house and December 26 as THE best day to get a good deal. I don’t know many people who go house shopping on boxing day but I have witnessed some good December buys over the years. Sellers aren’t crazy about the prospect of still having their home on the market in the new year and many other buyers are too busy with the holidays to give you competition.

Sellers: Let’s face it, December is a slow month for real estate but it’s not a total lost cause. Buyers looking for homes in December tend to be serious and your home will look great decorated for the holidays. Well priced homes that show well, shouldn’t find it difficult to attract an offer this month.

 

Dean Manton is your Guelph and area real estate expert. Put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you!

 

Oct
09

Do Cool Temperatures Mean a Hot market?

real estateAs temperatures began to cool and September’s first leaves hit the ground, the upward trend of Guelph’s real estate market continued. But do cool temps mean a hot market? Buyers that stepped out of the real estate market earlier in the year due to tougher mortgage rules and higher interest rates seem to have renewed interest in buying although the return has been gradual since July. While higher borrowing costs and tougher mortgage qualification rules have kept sales levels off the record pace set in 2016, the demand for more affordable housing outside of the GTA will not be suppressed for long. Many buyers remain positive about home ownership as a long-term investment and communities outside of the GTA deliver a bigger bang for their real estate dollar.  As the Guelph and area population continues to grow, the real challenge in the housing market will be supply rather than demand. Prices may fluctuate slightly over the short term but overall demand for homes in the Golden Horseshoe will ensure steady growth over the long term.

September sales for the city of Guelph were 153 which was 6% more than in August. The year-to-date sales (1624) were down 23% from last year at this time. At month’s end there were 316 active MLS listings, an increase of 23% over the previous month and 2 months worth of inventory at the current sales pace. 316 homes is a low amount inventory for the City of Guelph so we’ll need to see an increase in new listings for the fall market to really take off. The average sale price for Guelph in September was $519,932. That’s up 12 % from a year ago. 31% of sold listings in September received full price or more. This is a good indicator that we are experiencing a seller’s market. The median days on market was only 14 days. Another indicator of an active market.

Buyers: Given that the inventory of homes for sale is low, there’s not a lot of choices for buyers currently so you may have to wait a while for the right home to hit the market. When it does, there’s a 30% chance that you’ll be competing with other buyers. Fall is still a better time to buy compared with spring so if the right home comes up, be ready to pounce!

Sellers: October and November will be prime time to sell. Low inventory means that all new listings will attract a lot of attention. Properties that are well priced should attract multiple offers. Selling for over asking price is always fun!

 

Dean Manton is Guelph and area’s real estate expert. Call today and put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you.

 

Dean Manton  Broker

519-821-4000

Sep
12

Guelph’s Home Prices, Up or Down?

Market UpdateA lot of people have asked me lately, are Guelph’s home prices up or down? Guelph home prices took a slight dip in the late spring to early summer but the trend isn’t expected to last long, thanks to solid economic projections. Ontarians can expect to see “moderate” increases in home prices driven by the improving economy and the balance between supply and demand, predicted the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in a report on Ontario’s housing released recently.

Ted Tsiakopoulos, a CMHC economist, said, “Home prices are plateauing and are expected to grow along a more sustainable linear path supported by continued economy growth, moderate increases in interest rates and only modest increases in new housing supply.”

However, the price increases outlined in the report will likely stabilize the market and cause fewer bidding wars, meaning prospective buyers will be afforded more time to make an informed decision because they will feel less urgency to make offers. On the flip side, CMHC said homeowners may see their properties sit on the market for longer than usual. Tsiakopoulos said the current price correction Ontario is seeing fails to fully resemble historical price bust periods, so it will likely not persist.

“It is also important not to paint the entire Ontario market with one brush,” CMHC’s report said. “More affordable segments of the market will outperform as will more affordable urban centers in eastern and southern Ontario as GTA prices resume growth.” Guelph is one such market.

The city of Guelph had 177 MLS sales in August which is exactly what we had in August 2017. The year to date sales for Guelph however were still down 15%.  The average sale price for Guelph homes in August was $499,750 which is an 8% increase from last year. The amount of active listings at month’s end was 235. That represents approximately 1.5 months of inventory. This is not a lot of homes for sale but new listings should start to appear in mid September.

The sales to list ratio for Guelph in August was 99.2%, meaning that that the number of homes that were listed and sold were approximately the same. The median days on market for Guelph listings was only 17 days. That’s very quick for August and indicates that the upward trend that we saw in July is continuing. At the same time, 33% of August sales were for full price or more. That’s another healthy stat which indicates that many sellers were able to attract multiple offers.

Buyers: While I expect the market to gradually heat up as we head into the fall selling season. There are currently some good buys to be found. Not having to compete with other buyers is still a possibility that may be harder to find in October/November.

Sellers: As soon as we get past back-to-school time the market should start to really get going. Mid September to end of November are looking good!

Dean Manton is Guelph and area’s real estate expert. Buying or selling, put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you!

Aug
08

Guelph Market Update August 2018

real estateGuelph market update August 2018. Have you ever heard the old saying, “when America gets a cold, Canada sneezes”? The saying demonstrates just how closely the two countries are linked economically. When something happens in the US economy, good or bad, the results are undoubtedly felt north of the border. The same could be said for the Toronto and Guelph real estate markets. When Toronto’s real estate market gets the sniffles, the Guelph market is well advised to stock up on some tissues. Even though each city’s real estate markets are separate and distinct in many ways, we can look to Toronto or the GTA if we want to know what’s in store for Guelph in the coming months.

Stats recently released by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) show that home sales picked up steam in July across the GTA, with strong year-over-year gains recorded across all housing types and price ranges. The numbers indicate “an increase in demand for ownership housing so far this summer” according to Jason Mercer, the board’s Director of Market Analysis. Home sales in the GTA were up 18.6 per cent from a year ago, and detached homes, saw an increase of 26.8 per cent. The average sale price in July also increased 4.8 per cent to $782,129. “It appears that some people who initially moved to the sidelines due to the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan and changes to mortgage lending guidelines have re-entered the market,” says TREB’s Mercer in a statement accompanying the data.

Guelph also experienced a year-over-year rise in sales. July’s sales were up 19 per cent from 2017 although the year to date sales were still down 16 per cent over all. The average sale price for July was $506,838 and 36 per cent of MLS sales sold for full price or more. The listing to sale price ratio was a healthy 99.2 per cent meaning that on average sellers received 99.2 per cent of their asking price.
The amount of properties listed for sale year to date at the end of the month was 1931. That’s down 8 per cent from a year ago. Active listings stood at 304 which represents approximately 1.8 months of inventory. This is not a lot of choice for buyers and if the market is picking up. We’ll need to see an influx of new listings come fall to maintain a healthy balance.

If July’s market increases become a trend, we could be looking at a busy fall for Guelph real estate. I’d like to wait for August’s numbers before I make a prediction but if August shows another increase, we could very well be looking at an active fall market.

Buyers: August and early September could be your best bet to find good value before a potential autumn market upswing.

Sellers: Use the nice weather to get your home ready for the fall market. The second half of September to Mid November will be peak time to sell.

Dean Manton is Guelph and area’s real estate expert! Put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you!

Jun
12

Mortgage Stress Tests Take a Bite out of Real Estate Market

real estateThe Guelph real estate market got off to a cooler start in 2018 than many had predicted. Home sales have continued to drop on a year-over-year basis, leaving buyers, sellers and Realtors alike wondering if the market will continue to adjusting to regulatory changes for the foreseeable future. Did the new mortgage stress tests take a bite out of the real estate market?

While many expected that the market would adjust to the new mortgage stress test after the first quarter of 2018, that no longer seems to be the case. Guelph real estate sales were down 20% in May compared with the same time last year. But it’s not just the mortgage stress test that’s slowing down the market. According to the Bank of Canada, rising interest rates are playing their part as well. The BOC is expected to hike the overnight rate at least once more before the end of the year, this will increase pressure on an already swooning real estate market.

While sales on properties under $500,000 remain brisk, listings above $500,000 are beginning to pile up. I believe that many buyers wanting to move up from their sub $500,000 starter homes are having a difficult time qualifying at $600,000 to $800,000. The new mortgage stress test, higher interest rates and the accumulation of household debt are no doubt to blame.

While sales are down 23% year to date for Guelph compared with 2017, a lack of inventory has helped to keep things competitive. 54% of Guelph MLS sales in May went for full price or more. While this is a clear indicator of a strong seller’s market, over the first two weeks of June, the number of homes selling at or over asking price has slipped to 41%. This trend should continue as summer is a traditionally slower time for real estate sales.

The average sale price in Guelph for May was $523,146. That’s a decrease of 1.3% from May 2017.

Buyers: If you’ve been waiting in the wings for a deal, 2018 could be your time to buy! You will have more choice and multiple offer scenarios will still be a reality but more hit and miss. Homes that have been on the market for over 30 days should be open to negotiation. For the first time in a long time it may be possible to buy significantly lower than list price.

Sellers: Pricing your home correctly will be more critical than ever in the coming months as there will be more choices for buyers. Take the time to prepare your home for the market because you will be competing with other sellers. Multiple offers will still be possible but not as common as we’ve seen in the last year or two. Make sure your Realtor has an up to date marketing plan.

 

Dean Manton is Guelph’s real estate expert! Buying or selling, put his 20 years of experience to work for you!

Apr
19

Government Intervention & Mortgage Stress Tests, Are Buyers Feeling the Pinch?

Guelph Home ShortageWhen it comes to government intervention and mortgage stress tests, are buyers feeling the pinch? According to a recent Re/Max survey conducted by Leger, more than one in four Canadian home buyers report feeling pinched by the new mortgage stress test regulations. Re/Max says government intervention in mortgage lending rules and the stress test will continue to play a major role in the behaviour of buyers in the coming months. The survey revealed that more than forty per cent of buyers have had to make compromises on their home purchases, while almost one in three decided not to purchase at all. One in four buyers compromised on the size of the home they ultimately purchased, while 18 per cent compromised on the location of their new home.

Despite these compromises, buyer confidence remains relatively high. Fifty-five per cent of potential homebuyers said that they feel they can purchase a home that suits their needs compared to forty-six per cent last year. “The stress test, along with rising prices over the last two years, has contributed to the evolution of the Canadian homebuyer, and has prompted them to change their perceptions of ‘must-haves’ such as size and location,” says Christopher Alexander, EVP and regional director, Re/Max Integra Ontario-Atlantic Canada Region. “Homebuyers impacted by regulatory changes beyond their control have adapted to the circumstances and still, more than half feel like they can purchase the right home to suit their needs.

Re/Max says projections for the spring market are optimistic with most markets expected to remain stable or improve and while that would not be surprising for a spring market it’s still reassuring to hear. Supply is low in many markets and demand will grow as the weather warms up. While the prices may not reach the same levels as this time last year, healthy price appreciation from the earlier months of this year is expected across many regions, the company says.

The Guelph Association of Realtors reported 184 MLS sales for the city of Guelph in March, down 33% from March of last year. Keep in mind that March 2017 was a record month and 184 sales is much closer to normal for this time of year. The year to date sales are 442, also about 33% less than last year at this time. The average sale price in March for the royal city was $505,042 and 45% of MLS sales sold for full price or more. The sales to listings ratio stood at 70% for March. This is just about the historical average for Guelph. So even with new mortgage stress tests and uncertainty in other markets, Guelph’s real estate market returned to normal last month. March was in most aspects a very typical March for Guelph with many sales figures returning to historical averages. The only stand out is that 45% of homes sold for full price or more. This is about 10% higher than normal for this time of year and is primarily due to the fact that the inventory of homes for sale is quite low. Only 220 active listings at the beginning of April. This represents only 1.5 months of inventory at current sales levels.

Buyers: The crazy spring market conditions of a year ago haven’t returned! Although 45% of homes are selling at full price or more, 55% of homes are selling below asking price! It’s possible to find a good buy out there and even if you find yourself in a multiple offer situation, chances are the sale price won’t be too far above asking.

Sellers: Inventory is very low and almost half of all homes sold are getting a least full price. A little sunshine should really give the market a boost. May and June should be the best two months of the year to sell.

Dean Manton is Guelph’s real estate expert. Now in his 20th year! Buying or selling call Dean today!

 

 

Mar
06

Could February Bidding Wars Mean a Hot Spring Market?

Hot Spring MarketIt’s always difficult to forecast what will happen with the real estate market in February. Some years, like last year for instance, the spring market seems to get an early start and we as Realtors are off to the races before spring actually arrives. Some other years, like this year, February is much like a replay of January and the spring market seems a long way off. Although February wasn’t busy when you consider the amount of homes that were sold, the market conditions for people that actually bought and sold, were spring-like indeed. Could February bidding wars mean a hot spring market is on the way?

There were 142 MLS sales in the City of Guelph in February. That’s a decrease of 34% compared with super busy February 2017. The average sale price for Guelph residential properties was $476,710, a decrease of 1.8% compared with February last year. However, homes prices were up 1.6% year to date when compared with last year at this time. Although the number of transactions was down, the average days on market for Guelph sales was only 19 days and 53% of homes sold for full price or more! These spring-like market conditions were mostly due to the fact that the inventory of homes for sale was low. Motivated buyers found themselves competing for the few homes that came up in their price ranges. At the end of February there were only 223 active listings in the city which represented only 1.5 months worth of inventory. Unless we see a good influx of new listings, these market conditions will continue into the spring.

Buyers: Expect to see more listings come on the market in March but still not enough to satisfy demand. For this reason, there’s a good chance you’ll be in competition with other buyers. If this is the case don’t be shy about paying full price or even a little more. April, May and June will just be worse.

Sellers: Homes that show well and are priced correctly for the market should receive a lot of attention from buyers in March because the inventory is extremely low. Holding off offers for a week to properly expose your home to the market is a good selling strategy this time of year. Attracting multiple offers will get you top dollar!

 

Guelph’s real estate expert! Buying or selling, put my experience to work for you. Celebrating my 20th year!

Nov
07

Will New Mortgage Rules Affect Guelph’s Real Estate Market?

Real estate HeadlinesMarket Update November 2107

In October the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced new mortgage rules scheduled to take effect on January 1 2018. OSFI set a new minimum qualifying rate, or “stress test,” for mortgage consumers with down payments of 20% or more on than their purchase price.  Mortgage rule changes always seem to hit first time home buyers the hardest and this time is no different. No matter how much money they put down, they will still have to pass the stress test.” The effect of the new rules will be significant, resulting in a 20% decrease in affordability.  This means first-time home buyers will be able to buy 20% less house come the new year. For instance, a family with an annual income of $100,000 with a 20% down payment at a five-year fixed mortgage rate of 2.83% amortized over 25 years can currently afford a home worth $726,939. Under the new rules, they will qualify to buy a home worth $570,970. A difference of $155,969 or 21.45% less. Homeowners wishing to renew their mortgages won’t have to requalify provided that they stay with the same lender.

The City of Guelph had 176 MLS home sales in October. This was 11% less than October 2016 but still a respectable amount. There are currently 250 active listings which represents 1.5 months worth of inventory. Last year at this time we had only .7 months of inventory available. This led many buyers to compete for homes and pay well over asking price in many cases. The average sale price for homes sold in October was $504.212. That’s up 8% from September and 16% from last year. This doesn’t mean that home prices increased 8% in one month. More likely, the homes that sold in October were more expensive. 31 % of Guelph homes sold in October went for full price or more. This indicates that many homes are still attracting multiple offers and Guelph is still experiencing a seller’s market despite a little uncertainty about the market from consumers. The total amount of homes sold for Guelph year-to-date is 2059 which is only 6% less than our record year of 2016.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts that due to the new mortgage rules housing demand will decrease nationally in 2018 by 5-10%. Will that have an affect on prices? I expect that prices will still increase in 2018 but not as much as previously forecasted. Keep in mind that CREA does national forecasts and The Guelph market usually performs better due to strong employment and high demand.

Buyers: Check with your lender to see if you will be affected by the new mortgage rules. If so, you may want to buy before year end. Sales that are firm by December 31 and close in the new year will be exempt from the new rules. If your lender qualified you using the posted rate, you have nothing to worry about.

Sellers: I expect the December 31st deadline to extend the fall real estate market well into December this year. Buyers looking to purchase before the new year will be motivated and looking to put a new home under the Christmas tree. Relatively low inventory and higher than normal demand makes this a good time to sell.

 

Dean Manton is Guelph’s real estate expert! Buying or selling, put Dean’s 20 years of experience to work for you! 519-821-4000  dean@mantonteam.com  #upgradeyouragent  #my20thyear!

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