A lot of people have asked me lately, are Guelph’s home prices up or down? Guelph home prices took a slight dip in the late spring to early summer but the trend isn’t expected to last long, thanks to solid economic projections. Ontarians can expect to see “moderate” increases in home prices driven by the improving economy and the balance between supply and demand, predicted the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in a report on Ontario’s housing released recently.

Ted Tsiakopoulos, a CMHC economist, said, “Home prices are plateauing and are expected to grow along a more sustainable linear path supported by continued economy growth, moderate increases in interest rates and only modest increases in new housing supply.”

However, the price increases outlined in the report will likely stabilize the market and cause fewer bidding wars, meaning prospective buyers will be afforded more time to make an informed decision because they will feel less urgency to make offers. On the flip side, CMHC said homeowners may see their properties sit on the market for longer than usual. Tsiakopoulos said the current price correction Ontario is seeing fails to fully resemble historical price bust periods, so it will likely not persist.

“It is also important not to paint the entire Ontario market with one brush,” CMHC’s report said. “More affordable segments of the market will outperform as will more affordable urban centers in eastern and southern Ontario as GTA prices resume growth.” Guelph is one such market.

The city of Guelph had 177 MLS sales in August which is exactly what we had in August 2017. The year to date sales for Guelph however were still down 15%.  The average sale price for Guelph homes in August was $499,750 which is an 8% increase from last year. The amount of active listings at month’s end was 235. That represents approximately 1.5 months of inventory. This is not a lot of homes for sale but new listings should start to appear in mid September.

The sales to list ratio for Guelph in August was 99.2%, meaning that that the number of homes that were listed and sold were approximately the same. The median days on market for Guelph listings was only 17 days. That’s very quick for August and indicates that the upward trend that we saw in July is continuing. At the same time, 33% of August sales were for full price or more. That’s another healthy stat which indicates that many sellers were able to attract multiple offers.

Buyers: While I expect the market to gradually heat up as we head into the fall selling season. There are currently some good buys to be found. Not having to compete with other buyers is still a possibility that may be harder to find in October/November.

Sellers: As soon as we get past back-to-school time the market should start to really get going. Mid September to end of November are looking good!

Dean Manton is Guelph and area’s real estate expert. Buying or selling, put Dean’s experience and market knowledge to work for you!

It’s always difficult to forecast what will happen with the real estate market in February. Some years, like last year for instance, the spring market seems to get an early start and we as Realtors are off to the races before spring actually arrives. Some other years, like this year, February is much like a replay of January and the spring market seems a long way off. Although February wasn’t busy when you consider the amount of homes that were sold, the market conditions for people that actually bought and sold, were spring-like indeed. Could February bidding wars mean a hot spring market is on the way?

There were 142 MLS sales in the City of Guelph in February. That’s a decrease of 34% compared with super busy February 2017. The average sale price for Guelph residential properties was $476,710, a decrease of 1.8% compared with February last year. However, homes prices were up 1.6% year to date when compared with last year at this time. Although the number of transactions was down, the average days on market for Guelph sales was only 19 days and 53% of homes sold for full price or more! These spring-like market conditions were mostly due to the fact that the inventory of homes for sale was low. Motivated buyers found themselves competing for the few homes that came up in their price ranges. At the end of February there were only 223 active listings in the city which represented only 1.5 months worth of inventory. Unless we see a good influx of new listings, these market conditions will continue into the spring.

Buyers: Expect to see more listings come on the market in March but still not enough to satisfy demand. For this reason, there’s a good chance you’ll be in competition with other buyers. If this is the case don’t be shy about paying full price or even a little more. April, May and June will just be worse.

Sellers: Homes that show well and are priced correctly for the market should receive a lot of attention from buyers in March because the inventory is extremely low. Holding off offers for a week to properly expose your home to the market is a good selling strategy this time of year. Attracting multiple offers will get you top dollar!

Guelph’s real estate expert! Buying or selling, put my experience to work for you. Celebrating my 20^th year!

Market Update November 2107

In October the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced new mortgage rules scheduled to take effect on January 1 2018. OSFI set a new minimum qualifying rate, or “stress test,” for mortgage consumers with down payments of 20% or more on than their purchase price.  Mortgage rule changes always seem to hit first time home buyers the hardest and this time is no different. No matter how much money they put down, they will still have to pass the stress test.” The effect of the new rules will be significant, resulting in a 20% decrease in affordability.  This means first-time home buyers will be able to buy 20% less house come the new year. For instance, a family with an annual income of $100,000 with a 20% down payment at a five-year fixed mortgage rate of 2.83% amortized over 25 years can currently afford a home worth $726,939. Under the new rules, they will qualify to buy a home worth $570,970. A difference of $155,969 or 21.45% less. Homeowners wishing to renew their mortgages won’t have to requalify provided that they stay with the same lender.

The City of Guelph had 176 MLS home sales in October. This was 11% less than October 2016 but still a respectable amount. There are currently 250 active listings which represents 1.5 months worth of inventory. Last year at this time we had only .7 months of inventory available. This led many buyers to compete for homes and pay well over asking price in many cases. The average sale price for homes sold in October was $504.212. That’s up 8% from September and 16% from last year. This doesn’t mean that home prices increased 8% in one month. More likely, the homes that sold in October were more expensive. 31 % of Guelph homes sold in October went for full price or more. This indicates that many homes are still attracting multiple offers and Guelph is still experiencing a seller’s market despite a little uncertainty about the market from consumers. The total amount of homes sold for Guelph year-to-date is 2059 which is only 6% less than our record year of 2016.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts that due to the new mortgage rules housing demand will decrease nationally in 2018 by 5-10%. Will that have an affect on prices? I expect that prices will still increase in 2018 but not as much as previously forecasted. Keep in mind that CREA does national forecasts and The Guelph market usually performs better due to strong employment and high demand.

Buyers: Check with your lender to see if you will be affected by the new mortgage rules. If so, you may want to buy before year end. Sales that are firm by December 31 and close in the new year will be exempt from the new rules. If your lender qualified you using the posted rate, you have nothing to worry about.

Sellers: I expect the December 31^st deadline to extend the fall real estate market well into December this year. Buyers looking to purchase before the new year will be motivated and looking to put a new home under the Christmas tree. Relatively low inventory and higher than normal demand makes this a good time to sell.

Dean Manton is Guelph’s real estate expert! Buying or selling, put Dean’s 20 years of experience to work for you! 519-821-4000  dean@mantonteam.com  #upgradeyouragent  #my20thyear!

Puslinch Market Update October 2017

While most of Ontario seems poised to recover from the summer real estate slow-down it looks like business as usual for Puslinch real estate. I’m sure you’ll remember April when Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne announced changes designed to cool down the red-hot housing market. “Something had to be done” and surprisingly, the announcement did have a cooling affect on Ontario’s housing market especially in the GTA where the market instantly turned ice cold and prices took a nose dive. In nearby Guelph the affect was not so dramatic and the market experienced what I would call a mental health day or as it turned out, a few mental health months. Sale prices did decrease, about 15% on average, and Realtors experienced a return to the pre-insanity markets of old where you could buy a property without competing with other buyers and your offer wasn’t unconditional, cash, but actually contained conditions for things like financing and home inspection.

But why was real estate market in Puslinch unaffected for the most part? One reason could be that it didn’t experience as much hysteria as the urban markets to begin with. Country properties tend to be pricier than those in the city and higher priced properties attract fewer buyers. Fewer buyers means there’s less possibility of attracting multiple offers. Plus, country buyers usually insist on conditions for things like wells and septic systems which can remove cash buyers from the equation. Also, it can take a while to find the right country property. In some cases, a year or even two! Country buyers are in it for the long haul and when markets slow down and then recover in a matter of a few months, it can have little affect on a rural market.

Puslinch is a relatively small market containing four distinct sub markets of Aberfoyle, Morriston, Rural Puslinch East and Rural Puslinch West. Each sub market may only have a few sales per month. This lack of comparable sales can make pricing tricky and Realtors may have to look back a year or more for good comparables. The same comps can be used over and over again to price multiple other properties. This can have a stabilizing affect of the market.

Puslinch Township saw 6 sales in September and although that number is down 62% from last year at this time, the year-to-date total of 76 is actually up 6% from 2016. The year-to-date sales to listings ratio stands at 61% which means that 61 percent of properties listed this year have sold. There are currently 30 active listings in Puslinch which represents 5 months worth of inventory. The average sale price for September’s 6 sales was $1,064,333 which is an increase of 5% from September 2016. 2 of the 6 sales or 33% sold for full price. This usually indicates that there were multiple offers however none of the sales were over asking price.

Buyers: This is the best time to buy Puslinch real estate in years! There’s 5 months worth of inventory so you should find a good selection of homes on the market to choose from and you may not have to compete with other buyers. If you find yourself in competition, chances are the property will sell close to asking price instead of $100,000 over.

Sellers: 33% of homes sold in September went for full price! These homes were well priced and well presented. Taking the time to prepare your home for sale will pay off! October and November should be very active and goods months for selling before the December holiday slow down. Despite the amount of inventory this is still a seller’s market!

For a free custom market update for your Puslinch neighbourhood, email Dean Manton at dean@mantonteam.com

Dean Manton is Puslinch’s real estate expert. Now in his 20th year! Buying or selling, put Dean’s experience to work for you! #experiencecounts #upgradeyouragent #my20thyear!